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03/02/93
Experts say raid doomed from start; Firepower, element of surprise seen as lacking
By Nancy St. Pierre / The Dallas Morning News
WACO-The raid on the Branch Davidians was doomed because federal agents lost the element of surprise and lacked proper information about the cult's firepower, some law enforcement officials and counter-intelligence experts said Monday.
Officials of the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms defended Sunday's operation, saying its agents had been properly prepared and equipped.
One day after the bloodiest incident in the agency's seven-decade history, tactical experts raised some questions about the failed assault at the heavily defended compound near Waco.
Law enforcement officials in Washington said Monday that they are investigating the raid.
A University of Texas at Dallas professor who advises the government on terrorist issues said federal agents were ill-prepared to pull off a raid such as that Sunday and should have used a low-key approach to try to arrest the cult leader.
"No federal or civil law enforcement agency is trained to do a military-style assault,' said Dr. Tony Cooper, a professor who also trains law enforcement agencies. "They over-estimated the strength they had against this group. They made a miscalculation of the resistance their actions would generate.'
What began as a meticulously planned attack turned into a bloody confrontation and intense impasse.
Four ATF agents were killed and at least 15 were wounded during a raid on the group's 77-acre compound near Waco about 9:30 a.m. Sunday.
The agents had planned and trained eight months for the operation.
Their goals: to arrest cult leader David Koresh on federal weapons charges and to search the compound for submachine guns and homemade bombs.
A 45-minute gunbattle ensued before ATF officials were able to negotiate a cease-fire to retrieve their dead and wounded.
Given what some people call the fanatical nature of the Branch Davidian cult, some officers saw little hope of ending the standoff peacefully.
`Fight to the end'
"They will fight to the end. They have that mentality that they will die for their cause,' said Sgt. Emmett Dupas of the New Orleans Police Department. He calls the cult members Vikings because they think fighting such a battle is "their path to heaven.'
Officials at other law enforcement agencies were reluctant to criticize the handling of Sunday's raid. But some other experts said they would have done some things differently.
Some experts questioned why the assault was done in daylight; often police make raids when their targets are apt to be asleep.
"I might have done a nighttime assault, but that may have been difficult since they man that building 24 hours, and I understand they have night-vision equipment,' said Dallas police Sgt. Tom Shelton, president of the Texas Tactical Police Officers Association, an 8-year-old agency that helps train tactical officers throughout the state.
Dr. David Charters, director of the Centre for Conflict Studies at the University of New Brunswick in Canada, also questioned the decision to stage an assault rather than nab the self-proclaimed Messiah on one of his routine jogs outside the compound.
And he was surprised that authorities did not cut communications between the cult and anyone but themselves.
"I find that extraordinary,' he said, referring to live radio and television interviews with the cult leader broadcast even in Canada.
Dr. Cooper at UT-Dallas said it would have been impossible to approach the compound secretly and complete a surprise attack.
"In a small community like that, it's difficult for a large law enforcement agency to go in and not be noticed,' he said. "I'm sure they were spotted, and someone called and said the officers were on their way.'
It was evident that cult members were tipped off that agents were going to raid their facility. ATF officials said they are trying to determine how that news leaked.
In an interview with The Dallas Morning News, Mr. Koresh said members of his group had identified an undercover ATF agent who infiltrated the cult.
Mr. Koresh said he knew something was going to happen when the agent abruptly left the compound Sunday morning.
Tom Hill, a spokesman for the ATF, acknowledged an agent was undercover during the operation. But he declined to reveal specifics of the agent's mission.
Plan thwarted
Dr. Cooper contends that bullets should never have been fired.
"The time for negotiations was before bullets started flying,' he
said. "This is just like starting a war.'
The law enforcement officials and counter-intelligence experts interviewed agree that the federal agents' tactics were standard and appropriate. However, they said there is no way any agency, other than the military, could have approached the compound undetected.
"Their tactics of throwing in the concussion grenades and making entry is not a bad method,' said Sgt. Dupas of New Orleans. "But if the guys are waiting for it and they know the tactics, it won't do any good.'
Besides, he said, the cult's .50-caliber weapons-which agents were unprepared for-were unstoppable, adding that federal agents were hampered because they lack similar firepower.
"Street-level drug dealers have more gunpower than most police agencies,' said Sgt. Dupas, a 24-year SWAT team member.
Former Special Forces Maj. George Petrie, president of a Dallas-based security company that consults with foreign governments on counter-terrorism, said, "It's too early in the game to second-guess their tactics, despite the dead and injured.'
But he noted that a police operation, in which children and other non-combatants are a factor, is far different from a military assault.
"The principle of war-you go in with maximum firepower, surprise and superior numbers. In law enforcement you're not eliminating a target. . . . There's no such saying as "acceptable losses' in law enforcement. They go in with one hand tied behind their back,' said Mr. Petrie, head of Peregrine International Inc.
Several experts said the fact that the Davidians' resistance so overwhelmed the ATF demonstrates inadequate intelligence on the cult's weaponry.
"It's obvious they got ambushed. They weren't expecting that type of firepower. All the training and rehearsal and tactics in the world can't make up for that,' Mr. Petrie said, adding that planners may have underestimated the zealotry of cult members.
The goal in such an operation, he said, is to amass "a superior force to intimidate people into giving up without a fight. But this cult apparently was ready to fight to the death.'
Dr. Cooper contended that the agents' inability to sneak up on the cult doomed the operation.
"It was a key factor that he was clearly aware of this plan,' Dr.
Cooper said of Mr. Koresh. "He was in a position to resist and take steps to neutralize the ability of the agency to serve warrants on him in a peaceful manner. They walked into a hailstorm of fire.'
Several experts said that negotiations with a cult trying to defend its compound are extremely delicate.
Unlike hijackers holding hostages aboard an airliner, cultists want no ransom, no concessions but to be left alone, Dr. Charters pointed out.
"The only thing the cult can concede is surrender,' he said.
Many tactical and SWAT units, such as those in New Orleans and
Dallas, were so intrigued by the standoff that they sought permission to observe it.
"Everybody wants to be a part of this,' said Sgt. Shelton. "And there's a lot to be learned by seeing it all unfold.'
Said Dr. Charters: "They've got all the resources they need, but the real trick isn't getting in, it's how many casualties are they prepared to take among their own and how many they're willing to inflict.'
Staff writer Todd J. Gillman contributed to this report.
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