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03/02/93
Outgunned agents never had chance, experts say; Some see low-key approach as preferable
By Nancy St. Pierre / The Dallas Morning News
Federal agents never had a chance against the heavily armed Branch Davidians because they lacked the element of surprise and proper information about what weapons the cult members had, some law enforcement officials and counter-intelligence experts said Monday.
Agents with the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms also didn't have the firepower to match the illegal artillery amassed, they said.
A University of Texas at Dallas professor who advises the government on terrorist issues said federal agents were ill-prepared to pull off a raid such as Sunday's and should have used a low-key approach to arrest the cult leader.
"No federal or civil law enforcement agency is trained to do a military-style assault,' said Dr. Tony Cooper, a professor who also trains law enforcement agencies. "They over-estimated the strength they had against this group. They made a miscalculation of the resistance their actions would generate.'
ATF officials in Washington said agents had been properly prepared and equipped for the operation.
What began as a meticulously planned attack Sunday turned into a bloody confrontation and intense impasse.
Four ATF agents and at least two cult members were killed and 15 others were wounded when agents fanned out across the group's compound near Waco about 9:30 a.m. Sunday and were met with gunfire.
The agents had planned and trained eight months for the raid. They were trying to arrest cult leader David Koresh, who changed his name from Vernon Howell in 1990, on federal weapons charges and search the group's compound for submachine guns and homemade bombs.
A 45-minute gunbattle ensued before ATF officials were able to negotiate a cease-fire to retrieve their dead and wounded.
Negotiations by phone with Mr. Koresh have continued since.
Colleagues and peers of ATF were reluctant to criticize the
agency's raid on the cult's 77-acre compound, but they said they would have done some things differently.
"I might have done a nighttime assault, but that may have been difficult since they man that building 24 hours, and I understand they have night-vision equipment,' said Sgt. Tom Shelton, president of the Dallas-based Texas Tactical Police Officers Association, an eight-year-old agency that helps train tactical officers throughout the state.
Given what some call the fanatical nature of the Branch Davidian cult, some officers believe it will be impossible to end the standoff peacefully.
"They will fight to the end. They have that mentality that they will die for their cause,' said Sgt. Emmett Dupas of the New Orleans Police Department. He calls the cult members Vikings because "they think fighting like this is a battle and it's their path to heaven.'
He called the cult's .50-caliber weapons unstoppable and said that federal agents were handcuffed because they lack access to similar firepower.
"Street-level drug dealers have more gunpower than most police agencies,' said Sgt. Dupas, a 24-year SWAT team member.
Dr. Cooper at UT-Dallas said it would have been impossible to approach the compound secretly and complete a surprise attack.
"In a small community like that it's difficult for a large law enforcement agency to go in and not be noticed,' he said. "I'm sure they were spotted, and someone called and said the officers were on their way.'
It was evident that cult members were tipped off that agents were going to raid their facility. ATF officials said they are trying to determine how that news leaked.
In an interview with The Dallas Morning News, Mr. Koresh said members of his group had identified an undercover ATF agent who infiltrated the cult.
Mr. Koresh knew something was going to happen when the agent abruptly left the compound Sunday morning.
Tom Hill, a spokesman for the ATF, acknowledged an agent was undercover during the operation, but he declined to reveal specifics of the agent's mission.
Dr. Cooper contends bullets should never have been fired.
"The time for negotiations was before bullets started flying,' he
said. "This is just like starting a war.'
The law enforcement officials and counter-intelligence experts interviewed agree that the federal agents' tactics were standard and appropriate. However, they said there is no way any agency, other than military, could have approached the compound undetected.
"Their tactics of throwing in the concussion grenades and making entry is not a bad method,' Sgt. Dupas said. "But if the guys are waiting for it and they know the tactics, it won't do any good.'
Former special forces Maj. George Petrie, president of a Dallas-based security company that consults with foreign governments on counter-terrorism, said, "It's too early in the game to second-guess their tactics, despite the dead and injured.'
But he noted that a police operation, in which children and other non-combatants are a factor, is far different from a military assault.
"The principle of war-you go in with maximum firepower, surprise and superior numbers. In law enforcement you're not eliminating a target. . . . There's no such saying as "acceptable losses' in law enforcement. They go in with one hand tied behind their back,' said Mr. Petrie, head of Peregrine International Inc.
Sgt. Dupas said it appears that agents didn't gather enough intelligence on the cult's weaponry because the ATF was obviously overwhelmed by the Davidians' resistance.
"It sounds like they didn't even know what they were up against, and they should have if they had someone inside,' the sergeant said.
Dr. Cooper contends that the agents' inability to sneak up on the cult thwarted the plan before it began.
"It was a key factor that he was clearly aware of this plan,' Dr.
Cooper said of Mr. Koresh. "He was in a position to resist and take steps to neutralize the ability of the agency to serve warrants on him in a peaceful manner. They walked into a hailstorm of fire.'
Sgt. Dupas said he doesn't believe the situation will end peacefully.
"You would have better luck negotiating peace in Ireland,' he said.
"You have to storm it again and use heavier equipment.
"They need to take out that tower-it's their eyes-and blow holes in the walls, then go into room-to-room combat. It's scary and dangerous as hell but necessary.'
Others, including Dr. Cooper and Sgt. Shelton, hope for a less dramatic ending.
"There's a chance it can end peacefully,' Dr. Cooper said.
Many tactical and SWAT units, such as those in New Orleans and
Dallas, are so intrigued by the situation near Waco that they are trying to obtain permission to go there and observe.
"Everybody wants to be a part of this,' said Sgt. Shelton, who is a Dallas police officer. "And there's a lot to be learned by seeing it all unfold.'
Dallas and New Orleans tactical officers are calling the standoff "the premier tactical event of the year.'
Staff writer Todd Gillman contributed to this report.
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